Finding the Heir to Cucho
- Adith Joshua George
- Feb 13
- 9 min read
The end of an era is here as Columbus Crew with the announcement of the sale of Juan "Cucho" Hernandez to Real Betis for around 16 million dollars. A multi-faceted striker striking fear into the opposition at all times, Crew fans such as myself will never forget the brilliance he brought in his two and a half seasons with the club and will certainly hope that not only he succeeds in his return to Spain, but also that the club has a replacement in mind with this deal being executed so close to the new season.
Setup
With the nature of the deal being at the backend of the winter window and past Crew business under GM Issa Tall being centered around summer signings, it seems highly likely that a replacement striker will not be brought in before the start of the season. To find potential options to replace Cucho's goalscoring and creative prowess, I created a database of the top divisions in America, Mexico, Brazil, and Argentina. I also added the French 2nd division due to it being a hotbed of sorts for Crew signings under Nancy (Chambost and Moreira for starters). I used the last full season for all of these leagues, which for the first four leagues is just the 2024 season due to the different alignment versus Europe. This is different for France, however, where the 23-24 season was used for the primary combined database. This is significant for all leagues as by this point (February 5th as I am writing this), some of these players have already left their clubs (e.g. Helinho, Federico Vinas, Andres Carlos Gomez, and Chelsea-bound Estevao).
Part 1: The Cucho Role
Quantifying the output provided by Cucho in Wilfried Nancy's Crew demonstrates how incredibly difficult it will be to replace him. Typically slotting in as the striker in a fluid 3-4-2-1, Nancy was more than willing to give him the creative impetus to pick up any area on the field and do as he pleased, a key hallmark of the Frenchman's system where forward-thinking players fill up the majority of positions. Cucho is the type of player that thrives in this system given that his ability to strike a ball makes him a threat to score anywhere on the pitch. However, the less-noticed side of his game is his creativity on the ball, as not only is he a very capable defender but also a fantastic chance creator. Part of this is that he tends to attempt risky passes frequently, with a quite low pass completion rate of 65% contrasting a high Expected Assisted Goals per 90 (xAG/90: # of goals expected to be scored from player's passes per game) of 0.33. In fact, Cucho is directly involved in almost 0.8 goals per game, an astronomical stat that captures his significance to the Crew. He is not the most willing presser, but does make effort to cut off passing lanes at times.
With all this in mind, the statistics I chose to hone in on as primary indicators of a good Cucho replacement were: Goals per 90, Expected Assisted Goals per 90 (xAG/90), Shot Creating Actions per 90, Expected Goals (xG) per 90, Successful Take-On Rate, Shots on Target per 90, Non-Penalty Expected Goals + Expected Assisted Goals per 90 (npxG + xAG per 90), and Goals - Expected Goals per 90 (G - xG per 90). This combinations weights the goal scoring and creating side of a striker heavily in order to hone in on players who thrive as the focal point of the attack.
Part 3: Data Analysis
Using my soccer analysis tool footycomp (https://www.soccerlyst.com/post/footy-comparer-a-streamlit-app-allowing-anyone-to-analyze-player-performance-data) and the chosen stats above, I created a chart displaying the players who excelled across these statistics. This served as the base to analyze and create a shortlist of potential signings to replace Cucho. As a interesting twist, I decided to only choose three players from this table to highlight and utilized other tables and more outside research on strikers succeeding currently as the final two for the shortlist. This is because real-life transfer business incorporates more than pure statistical analysis, as contexts regarding club financial situations and player form offer real impacts on transfer value that could impact whether a player is worth obtaining.
Part 3: The Shortlist
Using the charts above, I took a deeper dive into a number of players and watched whatever game footage I could get my hands on to create a five player shortlist of players that I think could replace Cucho.
A quick note, I also experimented with other filters to try and focus on players who have experience playing as a striker rather than wingers, although I did consider wingers as Wilfried Nancy has shown many times over he can work magic when it comes to getting the most out of players in atypical positions. This means that a couple of players below did not show up in the charts, but I found them through other charts and research and feel that they are worth considering over certain players in the list that are either unobtainable or not a good fit for the focal striker position.
Ignacio Pussetto
Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | SoT per 90 | xAG per 90 | SCA/90 | Take-On% | G-xG per 90 | npXG+xAG/90 |
1 | 0.67 | 1.41 | 0.17 | 3.01 | 50 | 0.33 | 0.52 |
Pussetto possesses a unique parallel to Cucho having played in the same Watford squad as the Columbian in 2020. The 29-year-old Argentinean forward has an obvious flaw of not having scored more than 10 goals in a season, but it seems apparent that most teams have not given him significant playing time as his 8 goals in 18 games for Huracan in Argentina last year was achieved averaging a goal every 90 minutes. He profiles as a less-creative but equally clinical finisher compared to Cucho with top marks in goal-scoring efficiency metrics while possessing a slight drop-off in playmaking. He also is a capable dribbler and demonstrates a good burst of pace that allows him to play off the last defender or drop into build-up play. One key strength I noticed in his film is his ability to finish first-time, something that Cucho frequently utilized to bag lots of goals for the Crew. His experience would certainly be a boost to an already experienced side looking to push for trophies.
Est. Transfer Price: 3m
David Martinez
Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | SoT per 90 | xAG per 90 | SCA/90 | Take-On% | G-xG per 90 | npXG+xAG/90 |
0.79 | 0.36 | 2.17 | 0.13 | 3.56 | 57.1 | 0.43 | 0.42 |
The 19-year-old Venezuelan has primarily demonstrated an ability to greatly overperform his expected goals tally in his sole MLS season so far. However, he also excels at taking on defenders with a nifty first touch and burst of pace that enables him to often beat the first defender, and is showing why LAFC poached him out of the Venezuelan first tier with this efficient goal return. Although a risky buy with his age, I think he has demonstrated a goal-scoring touch that could see him slowly morph into a goal-scoring machine if given enough playing time, and although the Crew may look more for a win-now type of player Martinez could be the next player to get a marquee transfer to Europe from the MLS if given the opportunity. A move for him would most likely use the recently implemented cash-for-player trades system added by the MLS that has facilitated other marquee transfers such as Lucho Acosta to FC Dallas.
Est. Transfer Cost: 5m
Moussa Sylla
Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | SoT per 90 | xAG per 90 | SCA/90 | Take-On % | G-xG per 90 | npXG+xAG/90 |
0.47 | 0.29 | 1.15 | 0.22 | 2.62 | 39.7 | 0.18 | 0.46 |
Sylla is a unique case as he only popped up when I searched for specifically efficient goal scorers, having played on the wing primarily in the 23-24 season while on loan at Pau FC demonstrating primarily good crossing alongside explosive running and playmaking with the occasional well-taken goal despite not making the initial data-driven shortlist. However, this efficiency caught the attention of FC Schalke, the former German giant now duking it out in the second division of Germany, who poached him and since have reaped the rewards. 13 goals in 19 games demonstrates a distinct transition from a winger with a nice delivery and eye for goal into a goal-scoring machine in the 2nd division of Germany. On paper, it would seem like a move for him would not be possible, but due to the significant debt Schalke is currently in, a cut-price deal for the Malian international could be on the table. Having demonstrated the ability to be a creative force and now displaying a fantastic goal-scoring eye, Sylla could become a star in a Crew system that could maximize both sides of his game.
Est. Transfer Cost: 5m
Pablo Solari
Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | SoT per 90 | xAG per 90 | SCA/90 | Take-On % | G-xG per 90 | npXG+xAG/90 |
0.36 | 0.31 | 1.27 | 0.25 | 4.07 | 39.1 | 0.05 | 0.56 |
(Update: He was purchased by Spartak Moscow for 10 million euros on February 11th, but I will keep the analysis here. If I had to choose an alternate for the shortlist, I would go with Moises). When Christian Ramirez was rumored to be heading to Columbian club América de Cali before it came to nothing (Update 2, this aged poorly as Ramirez has joined LAFC, would expect to see more rumors in this space), one name that popped up in the Crew rumor mill was Miguel Borja. The 32-year-old Columbian striker has proven to be clinical with 11 goals this past season, but appears to be fairly one-dimensional which may find him struggle to be the focal point in the Crew attack but more so a supporting piece similar to Ramirez's role currently. However, River Plate has another interesting piece that appears to be in the process of being phased out in 23-year-old Pablo Solari. The Argentinean forward demonstrates an uncanny ability to create space to shoot for himself and others, and while his goal-scoring statistics do not scream star player his film displays a confidence on the ball and ability to create space that if properly cultivated could see him being a like-for-like replacement for Cucho.
Est. Transfer Cost: 7.5m
Marcelo Flores
Goals per 90 | xG per 90 | SoT per 90 | xAG per 90 | SCA/90 | Take-On% | G-xG per 90 | npXG+xAG/90 |
0.7 | 0.38 | 1.28 | 0.12 | 4.77 | 50 | 0.32 | 0.5 |
Although on paper Flores does not fit the bill as the best for last, watching a couple minutes of his film from Tigres this past season was enough to leave me enamored with this former Arsenal youth product. The Mexican international demonstrates a confidence and swagger on the ball befitting of a high-level winger, but also possesses a knack for popping up in critical positions to score and deliver incisive passes that are crucial in the Crew's style of build-up play. His willingness to take on defenders and shots in difficult situations certainly reminds me of Cucho and demonstrates a willingness to be the center of play. He is also a willing defender that would be a valuable asset in the pressing style the Crew employs. The biggest knock on him is his diminutive stature at 5' 5" that could become significant as the focal striker, but I believe his intelligent movement and pace more than make up for this. With a transfer value on Transfermarkt of only 1.8 million at this moment and the versatility to potentially fit anywhere across the front line (or even as an auxiliary wingback like that of Max Arfsten and 2023 MLS Cup goalscorer Yaw Yeboah), this appears to be a no-brainer as a U22 initiative signing and probably the best value for money in the list.
Est. Transfer Cost: 2.5m
Part 4: Conclusion
The best players chart truly exemplifies the scale of the problem the Columbus Crew faces in trying to find a replacement for Cucho. However, utilizing available data helped create a shortlist of five players that each would bring a different dimension and set of abilities that could work to help fill the gap left by the Colombian. Out of all the options, the one that intrigues me the most and I'd love to see in the Black and Gold is Marcelo Flores, but any of the 5 would fit in well as the focal point of Wilfried Nancy's fluid system given time. It will be interesting to see what the Crew does to replace one of their greatest ever players with young talents such as Jacen Russell-Rowe and Chase Adams, who recently broke into the global spotlight after bagging 10 goals in a U-17 WC qualifying game for the USYNT. As the new MLS season dawns near, there is certainly a looming question regarding if the Crew can make another MLS Cup push with or without a marquee striker signing among other positions of need that I will look to cover in future posts, but only time will tell. Thank you for reading this article, and I hope to see you again!
Database Used:
Comments